bayes’ theorem

29 12 2009

Spent the last two days reading articles at lesswrong.org and eliezer yudkowski . Very interesting, though I have always steered away from singularity proponents, the level of discussion here, or rather exploration, is high.

The most important post I found is on bayes’ theorem. It is a bit of a long read, but I think it is useful. The reason why I am interested is because it might link up a lot of separate thinking I’ve had over the years, namely:

  • fiction-fact wrt time
  • subjective science
  • XQ insight on fractions as relationships
  • the whole map-territory discussion
  • and that funny bit in tbd which deals with second order lying

I’d like go over bayes’ theorem with the genius Luke, especially covering the applications people are trying to use it for in the sites linked above, specifically dealing with beliefs. My intuition has come up with several points of departure/contact:

  • a mathematical understanding of intuition
  • wrt sliders, mapping the functions, producing derivatives
  • wrt sliders, iteration of a function
  • how intention effects a calculation
  • fiction-fact process, ie time wrt prior and posterior conditions

My most recent post attracted the attention of Eliezer himself who informed me that my comments were to be deleted since they received down-votes. This goes for any future comments or posts too. Bit sad, but there you have it. Still going to check posts on the rss feed, and I hope Luke and I manage to come up with something precise.

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